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Dati al 24 ott 2026, 14:50 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale
2029 17.9%In testa tra 13 esiti
2029 17.9%Previsori
15
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Variazione 7g
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Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto16 set 23, 15:03 UTC1 gen 36, 04:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 15?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SpaceX launch 2 starships within 24 hours?
Manifold MarketsHow many Starships will launch before a Starship lands on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026?
FutuurSpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028?
FutuurRegole
First year where (number of Starship launches that year) > (number of Falcon 9 launches that year).
- Any launch that clears the pad counts as a launch.
- Suborbital launches count.
- Falcon Heavy doesn't count towards the Falcon 9 number.
- If either rocket is renamed but is still obviously the same rocket, it still counts towards its previous name.
- If either rocket is redesigned but keeps the same name, it still counts.
