Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
More than 150% of 2022 21.2%In testa tra 7 esiti
More than 150% of 2022 21.2%Previsori
2
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto3 dic 23, 19:34 UTC1 lug 28, 02:59 UTC
Trend
Regole
Will be resolved according to The Clear Fund's (aka GiveWell) audited financial statements - currently at their "Official Records" page.
- The Program salary expenses for 2022 were 5.119kk - see archived file for 2022, page 7 of the original numbering, or 9 of the pdf, 1st column.
- I'll adjust by inflation using U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (e.g., using this calculator), or any other index officially adopted as the main official inflation index in the U.S. by the resolution date.
- Note that, if GiveWell just ceases for some reason before the resolution date, I'll consider that they'll spend $0 in 2027, and resolve the question early as "the named outcome".
- If it merges with some other organization of a significant size (>10% of its 2022 budget), this will make the comparison difficult, so I'll N/A the question early.
- I'll also N/A it if they change their costs breakdown in such a way that I can no longer find a comparable budget line for program salaries.
