Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale8 or fewer 44%+8.9ptIn testa tra 8 esiti
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Variazione 7g
+29.8 pts
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Aggiornato 10 minuti fa
14 ago 26, 8:3130 set 26, 23:59
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Resolves to number of successful launches of all variants of orbital launch vehicles on Nextspaceflight's Manifest Page. https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?q=&f=agency_1&tab=
- for September 2026, UTC time.
- If that page is demonstrably wrong or out of date, then I will either wait for update or a correct source will be decided upon and used as a replacement.
- A launch is considered successful if it is outlined in green on the linked manifest page.
- Launches outlined with red (failure) or orange (partial failure) will not count as successful.
- (Starship is considered an orbital launch vehicle, regardless of true orbit not being demonstrated.
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- Manifold Markets quota 8 or fewer al 44% al 4 settembre 2026.
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- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves to number of successful launches of all variants of orbital launch vehicles on Nextspaceflight's Manifest Page. https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?q=&f=agency_1&tab=