Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeBetween 10 and 30 years 55.7%In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori
16
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto24 mar 25, 10:55 UTC7 mag 55, 22:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?
KalshiWill Trump be excommunicated by Pope Leo XIV in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Pope Leo XIV shake hand with President Trump?
Manifold MarketsWill Pope Leo XIV visit first the U.S. or Ukraine?
Manifold MarketsWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiWill Trump meet with Pope Leo in 2026?
PredictItRegole
He took office on 8 May 2025.
- Intervals are left-closed right-open and based on calendar days in the Vatican time zone, e.g. if he dies or resigns on 7 May 2035 (regardless of the time of the day) then it resolves "the named outcome" whereas if he dies or resigns on 8 May 2035 (regardless of the time of the day) then it resolves "the named outcome".
- So far, 9 popes reigned for the named outcome and only 2 reigned for more than 30 years, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope#Lengths_of_papal_reign (but note that that list uses a definition of length which is off by one day with respect to mine).
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per How long will Pope Leo XIV reign??
- Manifold Markets quota Between 10 and 30 years al 56% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve How long will Pope Leo XIV reign??
- How long will Pope Leo XIV reign? dovrebbe risolversi il 7 maggio 2055.
- Come viene liquidato How long will Pope Leo XIV reign??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: He took office on 8 May 2025.
