Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeBefore 2026-11-01 99.5%In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori
17
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+4.5 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto31 ago 26, 14:57 UTC1 dic 26, 04:59 UTC
Trend
99.5%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketNext Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by which date?
PolymarketGemini 4.0 (Google) release date
Manifold MarketsWhen will Google release Gemini 4?
KalshiWhen will Google release Gemini 3.5 pro?
Manifold MarketsWill Google release "Gemini 3.5 Pro" to the public before October 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
The '+' means any version at or above 3.8 counts: if Google skips 3.8 and releases Gemini 3.9 Flash or Gemini 4 Flash, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Only a Flash model counts — Pro and Flash-Lite releases do not resolve this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Gemini 3.8 Flash, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Gemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date?
- Manifold Markets quota Before 2026-11-01 al 100% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Gemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date?
- Gemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date dovrebbe risolversi il 1 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Gemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The '+' means any version at or above 3.8 counts: if Google skips 3.8 and releases Gemini 3.9 Flash or Gemini 4 Flash, that still counts for the purpose of this market.