Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale03 Grok 5 released before 20270401 i.e.01 April 2027 80%In testa tra 22 esiti
Previsori
12
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+30.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 21 minuti fa
19 ago 26, 13:4831 dic 28, 23:59
Trend
Regole
Generally I am excluding Starship projects because I have a Starship megamarket at @/ChristopherRandles/starship-milestone-dates-megamarket
- Feel free to suggest other projects that might be added.
- Market clarifications 01 Cybercab is any Tesla 2 seater vehicle i.e. doesn't matter if called different things in different places.
- Operating means autonomously without any Tesla safety monitor or driver in vehicles.
- Less than 10 is just testing, 10 or more operating is needed to be considered operating.
- Robotaxi means available for public hire.
Mercati aperti
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Feb 1, 2027+7.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt93%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt92%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 255,6K €
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $72,500 or above97.5%
- $73,000 or above97%
- $73,500 or above97%
+36 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 143,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 130,5K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- October 31,+8.5pt82%
- October 15,-3.5pt50%
+4 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-0.9pt97%
+10 altri esiti
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.0pt95%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.6pt68.6%
- Grok-2.1pt10.5%
- ChatGPT-2.8pt9.5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 7,8 Mln €
- Best AI this week
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- BMW Championship Winner
- XRP price on August 21
- XRP price on August 31
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- BTC price on August 31
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Elon projects dates megamarket?
- Manifold Markets quota 03 Grok 5 released before 20270401 i.e.01 April 2027 al 80% al 21 agosto 2026.
- Quando si risolve Elon projects dates megamarket?
- Elon projects dates megamarket dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Elon projects dates megamarket?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Generally I am excluding Starship projects because I have a Starship megamarket at @/ChristopherRandles/starship-milestone-dates-megamarket