Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 59.3%
No 59.3%Previsori
3
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo1 ago 26, 16:23 UTC31 dic 59, 23:00 UTC
Trend
Regole
Will we find evidence that we are living in a simulation? I will resolve this market if we find strong evidence in the future that we are living in a simulation.
- If its not obvious in 2060 I will either do a rough literature search, or pay someone else to do it (at least 5-10 hours) and then resolve the market with the probability that reflects my best estimate.
- I will be 59 by then, so likely still alive in most future branches that matter.
- If I die, this market will resolve ambigous.
- Dec 17, 8:26pm: Is the simulation hypothesis true? → Do we live in a simulation?
- Resolution note: This market resolves identically to the corresponding source market, including N/A or partial resolutions.
