Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo, nothing that creator considers wild happened 95%+45.0ptIn testa tra 3 esiti
Previsori
20
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+45.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 minuti fa
14 set 26, 17:48 UTC14 ott 26, 17:45 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Sam Altman leave open AI before 2028?
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Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman leave open AI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Rob Wiblin (@robertwiblin) on X
- This tweet suggest something wild just happened at Open AI.
- Fact or crap? What happened?
- Feel free to add other answer choices.
- I will not bet on this market as soon as I can figure out how to click the button that bans me from betting.
- Update 2026-09-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the RSI (Recursive Self-Improvement) option:
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 63,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 63,6K €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.8pt68.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt15.7%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,5 Mln €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-9.9pt81%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 27,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 27,4K €
- Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
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- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Did Something “Wild” Just Happen at Open AI??
- Manifold Markets quota No, nothing that creator considers wild happened al 95% al 15 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Did Something “Wild” Just Happen at Open AI??
- Did Something “Wild” Just Happen at Open AI? dovrebbe risolversi il 14 ottobre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Did Something “Wild” Just Happen at Open AI??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Rob Wiblin (@robertwiblin) on X