Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale2050-12-31 71.9%In testa tra 4 esiti
Previsori
5
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo30 ago 26, 02:59 UTC31 dic 50, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will SpaceX be the customer for more than half of orbital payload mass in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starship first launch with useful payload?
Manifold MarketsWill a laser lift a payload to space before 2040?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
LimitlessWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiRegole
Space elevators, launch loops, mass drivers, spin launch, whatever.
- Anything that gets at least 1/3 of its delta-V from something not a rocket counts.
- From the surface of the Earth, Moon, Mars, or anything else with at least the Moon's escape velocity, to orbit or escape.
- Payload must survive enough to transmit from orbit or do something useful.
Mercati aperti
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt88%
- OpenAI-1.7pt10%
- Google2%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 85,3K €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes59.4%
- No40.6%
- Volume totale
- 153,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 39,2K €
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 altri esiti
POLYMARKETSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- October 3197%
- Successful splash down?84%
- September 30-5.3pt83%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 409,9K €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.3pt59.8%
- SpaceX-4.5pt38.1%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-1.0pt84%
- Above 9-27.0pt46%
- Above 10-8.0pt23%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per By when will the first non-traditional launch of an orbital payload happen??
- Manifold Markets quota 2050-12-31 al 72% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve By when will the first non-traditional launch of an orbital payload happen??
- By when will the first non-traditional launch of an orbital payload happen? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2050.
- Come viene liquidato By when will the first non-traditional launch of an orbital payload happen??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Space elevators, launch loops, mass drivers, spin launch, whatever.