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  1. Mercati Predittivi
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  3. By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese?
Manifold Markets

By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese?

One-OffIATecnologiaScienza3a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSenza KYC
Previsione della comunità attuale
Manifold Markets
01.01.2026 0%
In testa tra 9 esiti
Previsori

4

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 4 giorni fa

Obsoleto
10 ott 25, 11:001 gen 30, 23:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Esito scelto

01.07.20266%

Regole

This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves based on whether, at each specified date, all SOTA reasoning models use non-token-based (’neuralese’) reasoning.
  • Neuralese Reasoning Definition
  • A reasoning model uses "neuralese reasoning" if the architecture allows some activation to sequentially go through at least some part of the network an arbitrary number of times without at some point being projected from a continuous multidimensional activation into a discrete state (like token IDs).
  • Specific Resolution Cases
  • Counts as neuralese reasoning: Tokens are generated but there is also a residual connection that feeds back continuous activations into earlier layers

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Regole

This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves based on whether, at each specified date, all SOTA reasoning models use non-token-based (’neuralese’) reasoning.
  • Neuralese Reasoning Definition
  • A reasoning model uses "neuralese reasoning" if the architecture allows some activation to sequentially go through at least some part of the network an arbitrary number of times without at some point being projected from a continuous multidimensional activation into a discrete state (like token IDs).
  • Specific Resolution Cases
  • Counts as neuralese reasoning: Tokens are generated but there is also a residual connection that feeds back continuous activations into earlier layers