By the time a ceasefire or peace treaty between Ukraine & Russia is signed, will UA partially control Crimea?
GeopoliticaOne-OffRussia / Ucraina2m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 07:03 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 73%
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48
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binary
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Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto13 set 23, 20:40 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Russia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace deal to be reached by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Ukraine agree to a peace treaty that gives Russia control of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia agree to a peace treaty that gives Ukraine control of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRussia to control Crimea through the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?
Manifold MarketsRegole
The question will resolve to yes if the interactive map of the Institute for the Study of War shows that Ukraine controls any part of the Crimea Oblast at the time when a ceasefire (or a peace treaty) is signed.
- The Crimea Oblast is as defined in the Ukrainian maps before the 2014 Russian invasion.
- It includes any outlying islands and other natural formations but excludes rigs or other man-made structures.
- If there is no ceasefire or peace signed until the end of 2026, the question will resolve to NA.
