Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeGemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash 100%In testa tra 21 esiti
Previsori
123
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+20.4 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 minuti fa
30 ago 26, 21:40 UTC30 set 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
100%
100%
100%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
September 2026 AI model releases
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
PolymarketWill OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?
Manifold MarketsRegole
This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during September 2026.
- A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership).
- Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5").
- Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family.
- When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.
- Please ask for clarifications.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 132,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 322,4K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per September 2026 AI model releases?
- Manifold Markets quota Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash al 100% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve September 2026 AI model releases?
- September 2026 AI model releases dovrebbe risolversi il 30 settembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato September 2026 AI model releases?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during September 2026.