Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeGemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash 100%In testa tra 18 esiti
Previsori
109
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
-13.7 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 20 minuti fa
1 ago 26, 13:5731 ago 26, 23:59
Trend
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Regole
This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during August 2026.
- A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership).
- Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5").
- Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family.
- When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.
- Please ask for clarifications.
Mercati aperti
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Feb 1, 2027+7.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt93%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt92%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 255,6K €
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $72,500 or above97.5%
- $73,000 or above97%
- $73,500 or above97%
+36 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 143,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 130,5K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- October 31,+8.5pt82%
- October 15,-3.5pt50%
+4 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-0.9pt97%
+10 altri esiti
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.0pt95%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.6pt68.6%
- Grok-2.1pt10.5%
- ChatGPT-2.8pt9.5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 7,8 Mln €
- Best AI this week
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- BMW Championship Winner
- XRP price on August 21
- XRP price on August 31
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- BTC price on August 31
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per August 2026 AI model releases?
- Manifold Markets quota Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash al 100% al 21 agosto 2026.
- Quando si risolve August 2026 AI model releases?
- August 2026 AI model releases dovrebbe risolversi il 31 agosto 2026.
- Come viene liquidato August 2026 AI model releases?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during August 2026.