Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 56%
Previsori
14
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 22 ore fa
Obsoleto8 giu 26, 07:33 UTC8 nov 27, 08:33 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Before 2030, will > 75% of Americans be more concerned than excited about AI?
Manifold MarketsWill "How My Students Think About AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill an 11th state in the USA enact bottle deposit laws by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the SCOTUS hear a case about AI and copyright law before 2027?
KalshiWhich state laws will be enacted in 2026?
KalshiU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketRegole
I criteri di risoluzione non sono ancora disponibili per questo mercato. Questa sezione verra popolata con i prossimi aggiornamenti quando le regole della fonte saranno salvate.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volume totale
- 241,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 128K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 349,4K €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Are we going to create safety laws about AI??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 56% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Are we going to create safety laws about AI??
- Are we going to create safety laws about AI? dovrebbe risolversi il 8 novembre 2027.