Will "How My Students Think About AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
IAOne-Off1aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 77.2%
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Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto17 ago 26, 13:38 UTC1 feb 28, 00:00 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will "My picture of the present in AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
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Manifold MarketsWill the SCOTUS hear a case about AI and copyright law before 2027?
KalshiTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegole
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post How My Students Think About AI is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 132,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 322,4K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will "How My Students Think About AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 77% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will "How My Students Think About AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Will "How My Students Think About AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 febbraio 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Will "How My Students Think About AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.