30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term?
FedOne-OffInflationBonds & TreasuriesPoliticaUS Politics2aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 65.3%
Previsori
13
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 minuti fa
30 mag 25, 19:20 UTC19 gen 29, 11:59 UTC
Trend
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
PolymarketHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond reaches or exceeds 5.6% at any point during Donald Trump's second term as President of the United States.
- Trump's second term began on January 20, 2025, and is scheduled to end on January 20, 2029.
- The yield data will be verified using official sources such as the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates (tradingeconomics.com) or the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (fred.stlouisfed.org).
- If the yield does not reach 5.6% during this period, the market will resolve to "No."
- The 30-year Treasury yield reflects investor sentiment about long-term economic growth and inflation expectations.
Mercati aperti
Fed
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+1.0pt52.9%
- Fed maintains rate-3.0pt44.1%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 34,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 2,6 Mln €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt54.5%
- No change-3.0pt44.5%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 altri esiti
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt51%
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt43.6%
- Cut 25bps+1.0pt2%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHINext Fed rate hike?
- Before 2028+1.0pt85%
- Before July 2027+5.0pt84%
- Before 202773%
- Volume totale
- 3,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 45,5K €
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.1pt5%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.1pt2%
+10 altri esiti
KALSHIFed rate cut before 2027?
- No87%
- Yes+3.8pt13%
- Volume totale
- 997K €
- Volume 24h
- 41,2K €
- Fed Decision in October?
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- Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
Cripto correlate
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per 30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 65% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve 30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term??
- 30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term? dovrebbe risolversi il 19 gennaio 2029.
- Come viene liquidato 30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria