Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 64.1%
Previsori
8
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto24 lug 26, 15:49 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsTop Open Source AI this week
KalshiUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsOpen Source market share on Sep 10th
KalshiRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if at least two (2) of the top five (5) AI models ranked on the Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) general leaderboard are open-weight or open-source as of December 31, 2027.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- Primary Source: The official Epoch Capabilities Index leaderboard at epoch.ai/benchmarks/eci.
- Top 5 Ranking: Ranking is determined by the ECI general capabilities score.
- If multiple sizes or post-training variants of the same model series are listed (e.g., a base version and an instruct version, or different parameter sizes of the same model line), only the single highest-scoring version will be counted toward the top 5.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 132,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 322,4K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per 2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 64% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve 2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)?
- 2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI) dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato 2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria