1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.
One-OffIATecnologia3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 70.1%
Previsori
42
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto8 mar 24, 04:51 UTC2 gen 27, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
This market made in response to this article.
- One-hour AGI: Beating humans at problem sets/exams, composing short articles or blog posts, executing most tasks in white-collar jobs (e.g., diagnosing patients, providing legal opinions), conducting therapy, etc. One-day AGI: Beating humans at negotiating business deals, developing new apps, running scientific experiments, reviewing scientific papers, summarizing books, etc. One-month AGI: Beating humans at carrying out medium-term plans coherently (e.g., founding a startup), supervising large projects, becoming proficient in new fields, writing large software applications (e.g., a new operating system), making novel scientific discoveries, etc. One-year AGI: These AIs would beat humans at basically everything.
- Mainly because most projects can be divided into sub-tasks that can be completed in shorter timeframes.
Mercati aperti
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per 1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 70.1% al 22 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve 1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.?
- 1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026. dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato 1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market made in response to this article.