Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026
SportOne-OffIAChessTecnologia3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 62.9%
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37
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto14 lug 23, 20:00 UTC31 dic 26, 22:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Currently it's possible to craft simple tasks that most humans are able to solve, but LLMs can't.
- This market predicts whether this will still hold true by the end of 2026.
- Even if a clear explanation of the problem and of an algorithm to solve it is provided, today's LLMs haven't been shown to be able to answer correctly in a reliable way.
- While arguably most humans would succeed, if adequately instructed.
- In other words, this market means to compare the reasoning abilities of an average human with the top LLMs, at the end of 2026, in the fairest way I could think of.
- This market is about tasks meant to test reasoning abilities, that can be solved using only pen and paper, which can be understood and learned in less than 15 minutes, that you'd expect motivated kids to be able to solve.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026?
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 62.9% al 22 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026?
- Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026 dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Currently it's possible to craft simple tasks that most humans are able to solve, but LLMs can't.