LimitlessVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiCalibrazione approssimativaAvviso sulla qualità dei datiPrezzo non significativo
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 21:40 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Probabilità implicita attuale
August 31 50%In testa tra 3 esiti
August 31 50%Qualità del mercato
22 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
—
Liquidità sconosciutaDati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 minuti fa
25 ago 26, 12:46 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Does the US take control of Kharg Island (Iran) with boots on the ground even just for an hour before ... (UTC)?
Manifold MarketsWill the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsPerim Island no longer under Houthi control by which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall by October 31?
PolymarketRegole
the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.