KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Above 2.0% 86%In testa tra 7 esiti
Qualità del mercato
63 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
4K €
Liquidità
3,2K €
Liquidità mediaSpread
1.0 pt
Spread strettoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 minuti fa
14 set 26, 19:00 UTC13 ott 27, 12:29 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will I still feel that it is important to protect my social security number (SSN) in 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Social Security cease to be by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?
KalshiSocial Security Insolvent by which date?
PolymarketWill Congress enact an increase in the retirement age for Social Security before the end of 2028?
ForecastExWill social security go bankrupt by 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegole
If the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027, as initially announced by the Social Security Administration, is above
Si regola tramite:Social Security Administration
- 1.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For purposes of this market, the “2028 Social Security COLA” means the percentage cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027, which are generally paid in January 2028.
- The market will be determined using the initial percentage officially announced by the Social Security Administration.
- Subsequent revisions, corrections, or legislative changes will not be considered.
- This market concerns the gross Social Security cost-of-living adjustment and does not concern changes in Medicare premiums or the resulting net amount received by any beneficiary.
Mercati aperti
InflationKALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt98%
- Above 3.2%98%
- Above 3.3%98%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 265,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 76,3K €
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.2%+1.0pt99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+11 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 157,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 36,4K €
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- 2 (50 bps)-4.5pt61.4%
- 1 (25 bps)-2.5pt18.8%
- 3 (75 bps)+4.4pt17.8%
+3 altri esiti
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.8%+7.9pt100%
+8 altri esiti
POLYMARKETAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+4.0pt83.2%
- No-4.0pt16.8%
- Volume totale
- 33,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 31,4K €
POLYMARKETFed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Hike–Pause–Hike-0.5pt41%
- Hike–Hike–Pause+4.5pt24%
- Hike–Hike–Hike-5.0pt20%
+6 altri esiti
- Owners' equivalent rent for September 2026
- September 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core
- Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- CPI core in October
- September Inflation US - Annual
- CPI year-over-year in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)
- September Inflation US - Monthly
- CPI core in September
- Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY)
- CPI month-over-month in Sep 2026?
- U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Social Security COLA for 2028?
- Kalshi quota Above 2.0% al 86% al 18 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Social Security COLA for 2028?
- Social Security COLA for 2028 dovrebbe risolversi il 13 ottobre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Social Security COLA for 2028?
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027, as initially announced by the Social Security Administration, is above