KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Before Jan 1, 2028 50.9%In testa tra 3 esitiCorretto per il margine: le quote grezze sommavano oltre il 100% e sono state normalizzate.
Qualità del mercato
36 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
2K €
Liquidità
2K €
Bassa liquiditàSpread
10.0 pt
Spread ampioDati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 minuti fa
17 set 26, 00:00 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWill the U.S. and China announce an AI safety agreement?
Kalshi[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich YouTube channels will post an AI Safety/Alignment video in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurWhat grade will Anthropic get for existential safety in the FLI's AI Safety Index Winter 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
If federal legislation requiring independent AI safety evaluations or audits has become law after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A qualifying federal law must require a safety evaluation or audit of AI models, systems, or safety practices by an evaluator independent of the entity being reviewed.
- Government evaluators and independent outside organizations qualify.
- The review must substantively assess safety risks, testing, safeguards, or risk management; disclosure paperwork or self-attestation alone does not qualify.
- The law may cover a defined class of models or entities and may delegate technical standards to an agency.
- Self-assessments, voluntary programs, studies, and reviews limited to privacy, fairness, or transparency without a safety component do not qualify.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.05%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.25%+3.0pt97%
- Above 2.75%+34.0pt95%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 126,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 104,7K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.6pt69.9%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt14.6%
- Gemini+0.6pt7.8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,8 Mln €
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
- Alibaba-5.5pt69%
- Moonshot-4.0pt14%
- Z.ai+1.3pt6%
+8 altri esiti
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,86%
- December 15,83%
- November 30,78%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%+9.0pt99%
- Above 4.5%+26.0pt56%
- Above 5.6%+8.0pt14%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+1.0pt87.3%
- Moonshot+0.8pt8.8%
- Z.ai-0.8pt2%
+8 altri esiti
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law??
- Kalshi quota Before Jan 1, 2028 al 51% al 18 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law??
- When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If federal legislation requiring independent AI safety evaluations or audits has become law after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.