KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 86%
Qualità del mercato
61 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
17,2 €
Liquidità
13,3K €
Liquidità mediaBid / Ask
6.3% / 9.0%
Spread
2.7 pt
Spread moderatoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 minuti fa
29 dic 25, 15:00 UTC2 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Ontario lift its U.S. alcohol restrictions in 2026?
KalshiWill OpenAI’s Astra face U.S. government restrictions before January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the SAVE Act become law?
KalshiWill the SAVE America Act become law?
KalshiWill the SAVE Act become law by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:Library of Congress
- The bill must impose one of the following restrictions on products using large language models: forbid their creation; set limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with; prevent their use for certain applications or uses, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web; or restrict the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restrict US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.
- The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry.
- For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country.
- Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products.
- An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.
Mercati aperti
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+3 altri esiti
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026??
- Kalshi quota No al 86% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026??
- Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.