Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026?

IA RegolamentazioneOne-Off5m

KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiCalibrazione approssimativa

Probabilità implicita attuale

Sì 14%

Qualita del mercato

44 / 100

Bassa qualità

Volume 24h

3,5 €

Liquidità

13,4K €

Liquidità media

Bid / Ask

14.0% / 16.0%

Spread

14.3%

Spread ampio

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 7 minuti fa

29 dic 25, 15:002 gen 27, 4:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria

Esito scelto

Yes14%

Puntata (USDT)

Regole

If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The bill must impose one of the following restrictions on products using large language models: forbid their creation; set limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with; prevent their use for certain applications or uses, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web; or restrict the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restrict US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.
The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry.
For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country.
Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products.
An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.

Trend del volume

2 lug16g di dati21 lug

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Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?

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MANIFOLD MARKETS

Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$66,300.37+1.34%

EthereumETH$1,929.08+0.62%

SolanaSOL$78.10+0.09%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0734+1.26%

XRPXRP$1.14+1.98%

BNBBNB$572.57-0.15%

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Regole

If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The bill must impose one of the following restrictions on products using large language models: forbid their creation; set limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with; prevent their use for certain applications or uses, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web; or restrict the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restrict US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.
The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry.
For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country.
Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products.
An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.

Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026?

IA RegolamentazioneOne-Off5m

KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiCalibrazione approssimativa

Probabilità implicita attuale

Sì 14%

Qualita del mercato

44 / 100

Bassa qualità

Volume 24h

3,5 €

Liquidità

13,4K €

Liquidità media

Bid / Ask

14.0% / 16.0%

Spread

14.3%

Spread ampio

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 7 minuti fa

29 dic 25, 15:002 gen 27, 4:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria

Esito scelto

Yes14%

Puntata (USDT)

Regole

If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The bill must impose one of the following restrictions on products using large language models: forbid their creation; set limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with; prevent their use for certain applications or uses, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web; or restrict the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restrict US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.
The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry.
For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country.
Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products.
An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.

Trend del volume

2 lug16g di dati21 lug

Mercati Correlati

When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?

3,7K €

Before Sep 1, 2026: 2%

Anthropic IPO by __?

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

2,3K €

Before Oct 1, 2026: 20%

KALSHI

Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?

306,8 €

Sì: 7.8%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?

173,8 €

Sì: 56%

KALSHI

Will a top US AI lab be nationalized by 2030?

145,5 €

Sì: 72.6%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$66,300.37+1.34%

EthereumETH$1,929.08+0.62%

SolanaSOL$78.10+0.09%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0734+1.26%

XRPXRP$1.14+1.98%

BNBBNB$572.57-0.15%

Notizie Correlate

White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk

Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News

Russia passes landmark crypto bill allowing regulated retail tradingThe Block

Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt

White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph

Russia’s parliament passes crypto market law with $3,800 annual cap for retail investorsCoindesk

Regole

If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The bill must impose one of the following restrictions on products using large language models: forbid their creation; set limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with; prevent their use for certain applications or uses, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web; or restrict the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restrict US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.
The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry.
For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country.
Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products.
An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.