Will any Antarctic Treaty signatory announce plans for exploratory fossil fuel surveys by end of 2027?
GeopoliticaOne-Off1a
FutuurVerifica disponibilitàDati di risoluzione verificatiProbabilità implicita attuale
No 68%
No 68%Qualità del mercato
32 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
739,6 €
Bassa liquiditàTrader
5
Commenti
1
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 minuti fa
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PolymarketRegole
This market asks whether any state that is a signatory of the Antarctic Treaty will, by December 31, 2027, 23:59:59 UTC, make an official announcement of intent to conduct exploratory fossil fuel surveys (oil, gas, or coal) in Antarctica.
- For resolution, “announcement of intent” requires a public statement or policy document from a national government or state agency explicitly describing plans or authorization for such surveys in Antarctica.
- Primary Designated Source (PDS): official government communications (press releases, legislative acts, defense/energy ministry statements, or diplomatic communiqués) clearly confirming that exploratory fossil fuel surveys in Antarctica are planned or authorized by a Treaty signatory.
- If such an intent is announced during the Market Period, the market will resolve to “Yes.”
- Clarifications:
- Scientific research unrelated to fossil fuel resource exploration does not count.Private speculation or third-party reporting without a government announcement does not count.The announcement must explicitly mention fossil fuel resource exploration (oil, gas, or coal), not just general geological or seismic research.Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM): Futuur may rely on reliable news organizations, chosen at its discretion, confirming such an official announcement.