PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
December 31 41%-4.0pt
Qualité du marché
63 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
2,3 k €
Liquidité
4,4 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
40.0% / 41.0%
Écart
1.0 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
-1.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 minutes
30 juin 26, 17:19 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia capture Lyman by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia capture Lyman in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in October 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the railroad station (50.335310° N, 36.195107° E) located in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.