Probabilité implicite actuelle
Very strong 49%-10.5ptEn tête parmi 4 options
Very strong 49%-10.5ptQualité du marché
55 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
3,9 k €
Liquidité
2,1 k €
Faible liquiditéÉcart
4.0 pt
Spread modéréCommentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 26 minutes
5 oct. 26, 21:18 UTC21 oct. 26, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Polymarket
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Ordre minimum (parts):
- 5
- Pas de cotation:
- 1 points de pourcentage
- Frais:
- Oui
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsWill a human walk on Mars before strong AGI is achieved?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Koguma.
- Peak intensity means the highest intensity class the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns to Koguma in an analysis published for the storm.
- Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes".
- If JMA never assigns Koguma an intensity class, this market will resolve to "the named outcome".
- JMA's own bounds: "the named outcome" is under 33 m/s (64 kt), "Strong" is 33 to 44 m/s (64 to 85 kt), "the named outcome" is 44 to 54 m/s (85 to 105 kt), and "Violent" is 54 m/s (105 kt) or more.
- JMA states the intensity class in the "Intensity" field of each analysis it publishes for the storm, alongside the storm's "Grade", and assigns an intensity class only to a cyclone it grades "TY".