Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 90%
Prévisionnistes
95
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète14 sept. 23, 17:32 UTC1 janv. 31, 04:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill we get very strong evidence that the universe is Turing computable by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2028?
Manifold MarketsHow strong will Choi-wan be?
PolymarketHow strong will Koguma be?
PolymarketRègles
The life doesn't need to be intelligent to count.
- Can be microbes on Mars or some exoplanet.
- I define strong evidence for this market to mean that a majority of scientists would agree that it's aliens and not something else (note: not consensus, just majority).
- The reason I'm setting this standard is that I don't think it will be realistic to find conclusive, incontroversial evidence.
- Some examples for what counts as strong evidence:
- Biosignatures on an exoplanet, once the studies showing them have been replicated, confirmed, and accepted by the scientific community.
