Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 5 nov. 2026, 02:51 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Milieu du carnet sélectionné
No release by November 30 · —
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Référence enregistrée
No release by November 30 36%En tête parmi 32 options
No release by November 30 36%Qualité du marché
51 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
96,5 €
Liquidité
22,1 k €
Liquidité moyenneIntérêt ouvert
1,3 k $US
Achat / Vente
— / —
No release by November 30Écart
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Commentaires
0
Variation 7j
+13.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 49 minutes
En retard28 oct. 26, 21:52 UTC1 déc. 26, 04:59 UTC
Le graphique et les variations affichent les probabilités historiques enregistrées, pas le carnet sélectionné en direct.
Tendances
Ligne sélectionnée : milieu du carnet. Autres lignes : références enregistrées, éventuellement normalisées ; les variations sur 24h utilisent l’historique enregistré.
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Polymarket
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Ordre minimum (parts):
- 5
- Pas de cotation:
- 1 points de pourcentage
- Frais:
- Oui
Principaux détenteurs
Chargement des principaux détenteurs
Profondeur du marché · No release by November 30
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by which date?
PolymarketNext Grok Model (4.8+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
PolymarketNext Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
LimitlessWill "The current SOTA model was released without s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.8+) is made available to the general public.
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 4.8 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or Grok 4.7 would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.8 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.8, such as Grok 4.7 (released September 21, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.
- Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
- A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
