PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
November 30 86%+7.0ptEn tête parmi 3 options
Qualité du marché
67 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
2,5 k €
Liquidité
15,4 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
1.0 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 minutes
4 sept. 26, 14:36 UTC30 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
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PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
PolymarketWill "The current SOTA model was released without s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRègles
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3).
- Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,250 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
- $75,250 or above98%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 541,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 536,7 k €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+18.0pt37.1%
- 180-199+10.0pt36.2%
- 200-219-10.0pt12.4%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,2 M €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+39.3pt96%
- 65-89-29.7pt4%
- <40-24.4pt0%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+3.0pt71.8%
- Before March 202717.3%
- Before February 2027-1.0pt6.4%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic89.9%
- OpenAI-1.5pt8.1%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 résultats de plus
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- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
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- Where will it rain on Sep 9, 2026?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Next James Bond actor?
- BNB price range on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Meta's "Watermelon" model released by which date? ?
- Polymarket cote November 30 à 86% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Meta's "Watermelon" model released by which date? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Meta's "Watermelon" model released by which date? doit être résolu le 30 novembre 2026.
- Comment Meta's "Watermelon" model released by which date? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3).