Will "Why people like your quick bullshit takes bet..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will "Why people like your quick bullshit takes bet..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? ?

Manifold Markets cote No à 84.4% au 27 octobre 2026.

Quand Will "Why people like your quick bullshit takes bet..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? sera-t-il résolu ?

Will "Why people like your quick bullshit takes bet..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? doit être résolu le 1 février 2027.

Comment Will "Why people like your quick bullshit takes bet..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? est-il réglé ?

Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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POLYMARKET

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

• December 31-0.3pt4%
• October 31-0.2pt0%

+5 résultats de plus

Volume total

67,4 M €

Volume 24h

165,7 k €

KALSHI

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

• Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt23.5%
• Before Jan 1, 202813.5%
• Before Jan 1, 2027+0.1pt4.7%

POLYMARKET

Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by which date?

• June 30-6.0pt48%
• December 31-2.0pt10%

Volume total

19,6 k €

Volume 24h

4,5 k €

POLYMARKET

What will the biggest earthquake be on October 26, 2026?

• 5.5 to 5.6+83.5pt95.2%
• 5.3 to 5.4-12.1pt2.9%
• 5.7 to 5.8-12.4pt1%

+3 résultats de plus

KALSHI

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

• No97.6%
• Yes+0.9pt2.5%

Volume total

1,8 M €

Volume 24h

KALSHI

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

• United States+0.6pt56.6%
• China+0.2pt30.6%
• Russia+0.2pt

• Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
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• How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
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• US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
• How many human H5N1 cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
• When will P vs NP be resolved?
• What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
• Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
• How many gonorrhea cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
• How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?