Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Ulrich Siegmund become the Prime Minister of Saxony-Anhalt by the end of the year (2026)? ?

Manifold Markets cote Yes à 75% au 12 octobre 2026.

Will Ulrich Siegmund become the Prime Minister of Saxony-Anhalt by the end of the year (2026)?

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Oui 75%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 31 minutes

11 sept. 26, 19:22 UTC31 déc. 26, 22:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Ulrich Siegmund is officially elected and sworn into office as the Ministerpräsident (Prime Minister/Governor) of the German state of Saxony-Anhalt at any point on or before December 31, 2026, at 23:59 CET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
Official communications from the Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt (landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de) or major credible news outlets (e.g., Tagesschau, Der Spiegel, DW) will be used to verify the outcome.
Any temporary, provisional, or "acting" caretaker capacity does not qualify for a YES resolution; he must be officially elected to the office of Ministerpräsident by the Landtag.
In the Saxony-Anhalt state election held on September 6, 2026, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), led by Ulrich Siegmund, won a historic victory, securing 43.8% of the vote and 39 out of 83 seats.