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Will Ukrainian drones hit Kaliningrad before the war is over?

GéopolitiqueOne-OffRussia / Ukraine Europe3mois

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Oui 52%

Prévisionnistes

2

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 8 heures

Obsolète

10 août 26, 10:21 UTC1 janv. 27, 03:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Marchés Associés

Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.

Will Ukrainian drones hit Kaliningrad before the war is over?

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Règles

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if at least one Ukrainian drone—including uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) or uncrewed surface vessels (USVs)—impacts, crashes, or explodes on the land territory or within the territorial waters of the Kaliningrad Oblast before the active armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine ends.
This includes drones that are intercepted or shot down by Russian air defenses but whose debris subsequently crashes on Kaliningrad territory.
"Before the war is over" is defined as prior to the official implementation of a mutually recognized ceasefire, the signing of a bilateral peace treaty, or the formal conclusion of the active military conflict between Russia and Ukraine as widely reported by credible international consensus.
If the war concludes without any Ukrainian drone making physical contact with Kaliningrad territory, this market resolves to NO.
Preemptive measures, such as the declaration of "drone threats," airspace closures, or GPS spoofing, do not qualify as a "hit" unless physical impact or debris contact on Kaliningrad territory is confirmed.

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Questions fréquentes

Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Ukrainian drones hit Kaliningrad before the war is over? ?: Manifold Markets cote Yes à 52% au 8 septembre 2026.
Quand Will Ukrainian drones hit Kaliningrad before the war is over? sera-t-il résolu ?: Will Ukrainian drones hit Kaliningrad before the war is over? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
Comment Will Ukrainian drones hit Kaliningrad before the war is over? est-il réglé ?: Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria

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