Manifold MarketsFerméSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréCe marché s'est résolu: Yes (91.3%)
Résolu: 22 oct. 2026, 23:20
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.
Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 23 oct. 2026, 11:28 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Tendances
Gagné
Perdu
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, from October 21, 2026 to December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC, the Ukrainian Armed Forces or Ukrainian state-directed security services conduct a confirmed strike (via drone, missile, artillery, air strike, or cross-border ground assault) that hits a target situated within internationally recognized Russian sovereign territory.
- "Internationally recognized Russian sovereign territory" refers strictly to territory recognized globally as part of the Russian Federation prior to 2014.
- Strikes exclusively targeting Russian-occupied or annexed areas of Ukraine (including Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts) do not qualify.
- The strike must be corroborated by credible reporting from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC News), or official public acknowledgments by Ukrainian or Russian government/military authorities.
- Claims by non-state militant groups (such as anti-Kremlin partisan legions) will only count if credible reporting or official statements attribute direction, coordination, or execution to Ukrainian official forces.