New sovereign nuclear state by EOY2027?
Moyen-OrientOne-OffGéopolitiquePolitiqueRussie / UkraineChine1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 83%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète11 juin 25, 01:33 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRègles
As of writing, there are nine sovereign nuclear states: USA, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.
- Will there be a tenth by 31 Dec 2027, 23:59:59 UTC?
- Resolves YES if any sovereign state other than the above nine possess nuclear weapons before the above date.
- Otherwise, resolves NO.
- Nuclear weapons sharing agreements do not count.
- The state must have credible and independent capacity to launch nuclear strikes on other (e.g. neighboring) states to count.
