Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 82%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard11 juin 25, 01:33 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What sovereign state will the West Bank first be part of?
Manifold MarketsWill California be an independent nation-state by EOY 2035?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketWill more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?
PolymarketIran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?
PolymarketRègles
As of writing, there are nine sovereign nuclear states: USA, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.
- Will there be a tenth by 31 Dec 2027, 23:59:59 UTC?
- Resolves YES if any sovereign state other than the above nine possess nuclear weapons before the above date.
- Otherwise, resolves NO.
- Nuclear weapons sharing agreements do not count.
- The state must have credible and independent capacity to launch nuclear strikes on other (e.g. neighboring) states to count.
Marchés ouverts
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+18.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 25,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 719,6 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.5%
- October 31-1.0pt28.7%
- September 30-2.0pt13.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.4pt55.7%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.8%
- Naftali Bennett8.3%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.0pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Volume total
- 6,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 97,8 k €
KALSHIWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Before Jan 1, 2029-2.0pt69%
- Before Jul 1, 2028-1.0pt67%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-1.0pt64%
+11 résultats de plus
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour New sovereign nuclear state by EOY2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 82% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand New sovereign nuclear state by EOY2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- New sovereign nuclear state by EOY2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment New sovereign nuclear state by EOY2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : As of writing, there are nine sovereign nuclear states: USA, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.