Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 76.3%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète9 déc. 25, 05:22 UTC28 févr. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Federal employees at EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many government employees will Trump cut?
KalshiHow much government spending will Trump cut before 2027?
KalshiWill Trump cut corporate taxes this year?
KalshiWill Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?
PolymarketWill Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
2025 saw unprecedented impacts to the federal workforce.
- Will 2026 bring similar results?
- I will subtract the January 2026 reading of federal employee count from the January 2027 reading using the FRED federal employee counts given here:
- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001
- If the difference exceeds 100,000 the answer resolves yes, and no otherwise.
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
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- Jon Ossoff12%
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
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POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
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- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
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- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
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KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
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- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
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- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Trump cut >100,000 federal employees in 2026 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 76% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Trump cut >100,000 federal employees in 2026 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Trump cut >100,000 federal employees in 2026 doit être résolu le 28 février 2027.
- Comment Will Trump cut >100,000 federal employees in 2026 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : 2025 saw unprecedented impacts to the federal workforce.