Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète17 juil. 26, 04:01 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Thinking Machines acquired by Apple before 2031?
Manifold MarketsThinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence?
Manifold MarketsWill Meta or Thinking Machines have a stronger model by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRègles
ARR, at any point before 2029.
- If either company is acquired / merged into some other larger company, we'll vibe-resolve with 2029 AI (it will be very smart)
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.6pt70.7%
- ChatGPT-2.8pt13.1%
- Grok+0.8pt7.1%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 50,3 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,-1.0pt89%
- December 31,-3.5pt88%
- November 30,-6.5pt85%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$900B+10.4pt100%
- ↑$1.0T-4.5pt82%
- ↑$1.25T-4.5pt57%
+12 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude+1.0pt91.7%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt1.9%
- Gemini0.9%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 60,6 k €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+2.0pt91.4%
- Grok+1.0pt1.9%
- Gemini1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 425,5 k €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202795%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-9.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt84%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,5 M €
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- OpenAI IPO by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 7–13
- Most popular AI this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Thinking Machines surpass Anthropic in revenue before 2029? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 95% au 12 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Thinking Machines surpass Anthropic in revenue before 2029? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Thinking Machines surpass Anthropic in revenue before 2029? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment Will Thinking Machines surpass Anthropic in revenue before 2029? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : ARR, at any point before 2029.