Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 99%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète18 août 25, 02:51 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Thinking Machines acquired by Apple before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product?
Manifold MarketsWill Thinking Machines surpass Anthropic in revenue before 2029?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- Resolve YES if Thinking Machines Lab (TML) publicly releases a product before Safe Superintelligence Inc. (SSI) by 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2029; resolve NO if SSI releases first by that deadline; resolve N/A if neither releases by then.
- Public timestamps determine precedence; if exact simultaneous release times cannot be distinguished, resolve N/A. “Product release” means any of: (a) a publicly accessible consumer app or web product; (b) an API/developer platform with public sign‑up or paid access (counts once external users beyond the company are admitted, not at waitlist announcement); (c) an open‑source release of runnable model weights or software with a versioned tag on a public repo; or (d) an App Store/Play Store listing.
- Excludes demos, research papers without runnable code/weights, private NDAs/pilots with a single customer, and fundraising/”we’re building” posts.
- Primary verification sources: official sites/announcements and product pages (TML: https://thinkingmachines.ai/; SSI: https://ssi.inc/), company GitHub/orgs, App Store/Play Store pages, or major tech press with explicit availability and timestamps (e.g., TechCrunch/Reuters).
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.6pt70.7%
- ChatGPT-2.8pt13.1%
- Grok+0.8pt7.1%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 50,3 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,-1.0pt89%
- December 31,-3.5pt88%
- November 30,-6.5pt85%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$900B+10.4pt100%
- ↑$1.0T-4.5pt82%
- ↑$1.25T-4.5pt57%
+12 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude+1.0pt91.7%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt1.9%
- Gemini0.9%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 60,6 k €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+2.0pt91.4%
- Grok+1.0pt1.9%
- Gemini1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 425,5 k €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202795%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-9.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt84%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,5 M €
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- OpenAI IPO by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 7–13
- Most popular AI this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 99% au 12 septembre 2026.
- Quand Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2030.
- Comment Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria