Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 61.1%
Prévisionnistes
43
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète11 nov. 23, 07:37 UTC18 nov. 28, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Andrew Tate be sentenced to several years in a British prison?
Manifold Markets8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]
Manifold MarketsWhich UBI policy will be adopted after mass unemployment due to AI?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiCPI in August
KalshiRègles
"Things will basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years and those worries are overstated ", from https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hc9nMipTXy2sm3tJb/vote-on-interesting-disagreements
- No strict criteria.
- Resolves to my or a resolution council's judgment if there's any disagreement, resolution should agree with the consensus if there is one.
Marchés ouverts
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 89,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 541,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 334,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8 k €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 10,7 k €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume total
- 612,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 6,9 k €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume total
- 2,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,3 k €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 61% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years? doit être résolu le 18 novembre 2028.
- Comment Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : "Things will basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years and those worries are overstated ", from https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hc9nMipTXy2sm3tJb/vote-on-interesting-disagreements