Prévision communautaire actuelle
No UBI 75.8%En tête parmi 4 options
No UBI 75.8%Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète29 déc. 23, 02:33 UTC1 janv. 40, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Conditional on Mass Unemployment due to AI in the US, which happens first?
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Manifold MarketsWill AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ?
Manifold MarketsWho will offer the most canonical compute price index at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?
Manifold MarketsRègles
UBI Policy Levels:
- Utopian: Equal to or greater than the top 90% annual income in 2023.
- Median: Equal to the median national income in 2023.
- Minimum Wage: Equal to the legal minimum wage in 2023.
- Resolution Criteria:
- Resolves positively for the first universal basic income (UBI) scenario that most closely matches the policy officially adopted in the US or UK (after a 'resolves after' condition is met).
