Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 64%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète17 déc. 22, 17:08 UTC31 déc. 28, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine acquire nuclear weapons by the end of 2028, depending on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWill any of the UN’s Security Council permanent members leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
Currently, there are nine states who are generally considered to posess nuclear weapons.
- Will the number be higher at any time until end of year 2028?
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+7.0pt81.4%
- New People (NL)-3.6pt16.7%
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)-0.8pt1%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5 M €
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No83.2%
- Yes16.8%
- Volume total
- 58,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 290,2 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.2pt56.1%
- October 3131.8%
- September 30-2.0pt10.3%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31-2.0pt19%
- October 31-3.0pt10%
- September 30-1.6pt2%
+9 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No+0.5pt96%
- Yes-0.5pt4%
- Volume total
- 36,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 129,1 k €
POLYMARKETNext round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- March 31, 2027+1.5pt63%
- December-1.5pt41%
- October+3.5pt27%
+9 résultats de plus
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be further proliferation of nuclear weapons until 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 64% au 18 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be further proliferation of nuclear weapons until 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be further proliferation of nuclear weapons until 2028? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment Will there be further proliferation of nuclear weapons until 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Currently, there are nine states who are generally considered to posess nuclear weapons.