Will Ukraine acquire nuclear weapons by the end of 2028, depending on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election?
PolitiqueTechGéopolitique2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Trump wins, Ukraine does not acquire nuclear weapons. 89.5%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
26
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète22 oct. 24, 21:01 UTC1 janv. 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
Ukraine inherited substantial nuclear expertise and infrastructure from the Soviet era, including nuclear reactors and scientific knowledge.
- Ukraine renounced nuclear weapons in 1994 under the Budapest Memorandum and dismantled its arsenal, but it retains civilian nuclear power capabilities and access to technical expertise.
- If credible evidence emerges after the election that Ukraine possesses nuclear weapons, this market will resolve accordingly.
- It will be resolved as N/A if the election remains undecided.