Will there be an attack on civilians in a NATO country committed primarily with a laser weapon with >19 casualties?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffEurope4a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 74.3%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
12 oct. 23, 15:57 UTC2 janv. 31, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be an attack on US civilians committed primarily with drones with >9 casualties before 2031?
Manifold MarketsNATO country shoots down Israeli aircraft, missile, or drone before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia invade a NATO country by which date?
PolymarketEU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Ends January 1st, 2031.
- Attack could be committed by terrorist, state actor, or independent.
- Accidents do not count.
- I used NATO to capture the spirit of "developed Western country," but any incident on the ground of a country that is a member of NATO at the time of the attack counts.
- Incidents on the grounds of other territories may count if they are intentionally directed at NATO country citizens.
- Primarily with a laser weapon means the damage was caused by the laser and it's direct causal effects and not by some other weapon.