Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 62.8%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète24 janv. 26, 17:12 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a major movie about OpenClaw by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a major US government bailout of a technology company before 2028?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2028, will there be a major self-improving AI policy*?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Harris, Texas in 2026?
ForecastExWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Texas in 2026?
ForecastExRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a major outbreak of avian flu is confirmed by the end of 2027.
- A "major outbreak" is defined as one of the following occurring before January 1, 2028:
- Sustained human-to-human transmission: Confirmed human-to-human transmission of H5N1 with at least 10 confirmed cases resulting from person-to-person spread (not occupational exposure to animals).
- Significant poultry mortality event: A single outbreak affecting 10+ million birds across one or more countries, requiring mass culling operations.
- Pandemic declaration: Official declaration of a pandemic by the WHO related to avian influenza.
