Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 89.4%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète17 févr. 26, 15:44 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Feature movie about the Bricks and Minifigs/Reckless Ben dispute announced by EoY 2027
Manifold MarketsWill there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a major outbreak of avian flu before the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a major US government bailout of a technology company before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Harris, Texas in 2026?
ForecastExWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Texas in 2026?
ForecastExRègles
As Alex Finn suggested in his livestream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIgDfVSDmMU
- Major movie means produced by a large movie studio, not a small production.
- I won't bet.
- Update 2026-02-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Large movie studio" will be determined by whether the creator would have a reasonable chance of hearing about the movie outside of their AI internet circle, or if they know a non-AI person who heard about it/watched it.
