Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 91%
Prévisionnistes
50
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 50 minutes
En retard28 août 23, 08:17 UTC31 déc. 28, 21:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the World's GDP double in 10 years?
Manifold MarketsWill AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035?
Manifold MarketsWhen AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years?
Manifold Markets2026 World GDP Growth
PolymarketFed Decision in September?
PolymarketCPI in August
KalshiRègles
We will resolve it at the closing time to "No" if there's no year with growth over 14% or insufficient growth for the GDP to have doubled.
- Otherwise, I will have to wait for official statistics to resolve this.
Marchés ouverts
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 91 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 569,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 47,4 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 359,2 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 16,4 k €
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-1.0pt96%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-8.0pt86%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Volume total
- 314,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 9,5 k €
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the World's GDP double in 5 years? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 91% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the World's GDP double in 5 years? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the World's GDP double in 5 years? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment Will the World's GDP double in 5 years? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : We will resolve it at the closing time to "No" if there's no year with growth over 14% or insufficient growth for the GDP to have doubled.