Will the US restrict US companies from using Chinese open models

IAOne-OffRégulation China1a

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibré

Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes

Données au 18 juil. 2026, 13:00 UTC · politique pm-quality-2

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Ban use of open Chinese models by government applications in production 70.9%

En tête parmi 5 options

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

multiple choice

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 3 jours

Obsolète

8 juil. 26, 14:4331 déc. 27, 23:59

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier

Résultat choisi

Ban use of open Chinese models by government applications in production71%

Mise (USDT)

Règles

A ban or restriction has to come from the federal government (any branch) and has to actually go into effect.

If a ban is announced but the effective date is in 2028, I'll extend the close date to it's effective date.
I'll buffer to allow for legal challenges within 1 month of effective date (eg: if ban goes into effect Jan 1, but court blocks on Jan 5, I won't count that as a ban).
I will not bet so I can subjectively decide if narrow exceptions count.
For the types of exceptions I can imagine:
company size limits still count: "companies over X employees can't use Y model" is a ban.

Tendance du volume

$200

8 juil.4j de données18 juil.

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Règles

A ban or restriction has to come from the federal government (any branch) and has to actually go into effect.

If a ban is announced but the effective date is in 2028, I'll extend the close date to it's effective date.
I'll buffer to allow for legal challenges within 1 month of effective date (eg: if ban goes into effect Jan 1, but court blocks on Jan 5, I won't count that as a ban).
I will not bet so I can subjectively decide if narrow exceptions count.
For the types of exceptions I can imagine:
company size limits still count: "companies over X employees can't use Y model" is a ban.

Will the US restrict US companies from using Chinese open models

IAOne-OffRégulation China1a

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibré

Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes

Données au 18 juil. 2026, 13:00 UTC · politique pm-quality-2

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Ban use of open Chinese models by government applications in production 70.9%

En tête parmi 5 options

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

multiple choice

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 3 jours

Obsolète

8 juil. 26, 14:4331 déc. 27, 23:59

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier

Résultat choisi

Ban use of open Chinese models by government applications in production71%

Mise (USDT)

Règles

A ban or restriction has to come from the federal government (any branch) and has to actually go into effect.

If a ban is announced but the effective date is in 2028, I'll extend the close date to it's effective date.
I'll buffer to allow for legal challenges within 1 month of effective date (eg: if ban goes into effect Jan 1, but court blocks on Jan 5, I won't count that as a ban).
I will not bet so I can subjectively decide if narrow exceptions count.
For the types of exceptions I can imagine:
company size limits still count: "companies over X employees can't use Y model" is a ban.

Tendance du volume

$200

8 juil.4j de données18 juil.

Marchés Associés

Will the US restrict access to Kimi in 2026?

1,1 k €

Oui: 26%

KALSHI

鹅腿阿姨卖鸭腿事件:市监部门最终会做出哪种处理?(2026/8/31前) / "Goose-leg Auntie" duck-leg case: final penalty?

155 €

A. 截止日前无任何官方处理结论(仍在调查/不了了之): 3.5%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Nvidia H200 chips delivered to China before 2027?

0 €

Oui: 99%

KALSHI

When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?

3,7 k €

Before Sep 1, 2026: 1%

Anthropic IPO by __?

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

878,4 €

Oui: 14.3%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$66,281.06+1.74%

EthereumETH$1,918.22+1.02%

SolanaSOL$77.86+0.43%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0731+1.60%

XRPXRP$1.14+2.51%

BNBBNB$572.15+0.38%

Actualités Associées

White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk

Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News

Russia passes landmark crypto bill allowing regulated retail tradingThe Block

Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt

White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph

Russia’s parliament passes crypto market law with $3,800 annual cap for retail investorsCoindesk

Règles

A ban or restriction has to come from the federal government (any branch) and has to actually go into effect.

If a ban is announced but the effective date is in 2028, I'll extend the close date to it's effective date.
I'll buffer to allow for legal challenges within 1 month of effective date (eg: if ban goes into effect Jan 1, but court blocks on Jan 5, I won't count that as a ban).
I will not bet so I can subjectively decide if narrow exceptions count.
For the types of exceptions I can imagine:
company size limits still count: "companies over X employees can't use Y model" is a ban.