Will US government action cause a non-Anthropic company to restrict availability of a model in 2026?
IAOne-Off3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 73.3%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 52 minutes
En retard13 juin 26, 15:41 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a non-Anthropic company make a Mythos-class model generally available worldwide in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government restrict access to an OpenAI model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketUS Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill the US government rescind the Anthropic ban?
KalshiRègles
Apparent prior restraint doesn't count; the model must be available to some set of users and then have reduced availability.
- The reduced availability must be on-surface-appearance-obviously due to US government action.
- Exception: Ceasing to support any services in some country (e.g. OpenAI removing a country from https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/supported-countries) does NOT count.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will US government action cause a non-Anthropic company to restrict availability of a model in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 73% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will US government action cause a non-Anthropic company to restrict availability of a model in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will US government action cause a non-Anthropic company to restrict availability of a model in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will US government action cause a non-Anthropic company to restrict availability of a model in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Apparent prior restraint doesn't count; the model must be available to some set of users and then have reduced availability.