Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 57.1%
Prévisionnistes
35
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 36 minutes
18 août 23, 16:11 UTC31 déc. 50, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?
Manifold MarketsHow will we have the first-ever First Gentleman of the United States
Manifold MarketsWill factory farming ever be de facto banned and enforced across the contiguous United States?
Manifold MarketsWill Xi Jinping visit the United States?
KalshiHow many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiWill the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
KalshiRègles
The World Bank will be used as the source to resolve this.
- Automatically resolves if the US has a higher GDP than China in any year after 2023, if the Chinese economy becomes larger than the US one again, this still resolves YES.
Marchés ouverts
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 89,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 541,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 334,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8 k €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 10,7 k €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume total
- 612,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 6,9 k €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume total
- 2,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,3 k €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the United States overtake China in PPP GDP by 2050? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 57% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the United States overtake China in PPP GDP by 2050? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the United States overtake China in PPP GDP by 2050? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2050.
- Comment Will the United States overtake China in PPP GDP by 2050? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The World Bank will be used as the source to resolve this.