Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 86%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard2 juil. 26, 00:12 UTC4 déc. 26, 13:25 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
KalshiMexico unemployment rate in August
KalshiSeptember Unemployment Rate
PolymarketAustralia unemployment rate in August
KalshiUnemployment rate for new college grads increases in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich EU country will have the highest unemployment rate?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for November 2026 reports an official U-3 unemployment rate of at least 4.5 percent, seasonally adjusted.
- Use the household-survey U-3 unemployment rate for November 2026 from the first BLS Employment Situation release.
- A value of 4.5% or higher resolves YES.
- A value of 4.4% or lower resolves NO.
- Do not use total nonfarm payroll employment, household employment level, labor-force participation, U-6, metro-area or state unemployment rates, demographic subseries, non-seasonally-adjusted values, forecast consensus, any-2026-month markets, or later revisions unless BLS corrects the initial November 2026 release before resolution.
- If the November 2026 Employment Situation release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release containing the November 2026 U-3 unemployment rate unless there is no such release by December 11, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": "The latest checked BLS Employment Situation context reported a May 2026 U-3 unemployment rate of 4.3 percent and a 4.3-4.5 percent range since July 2025.", "metric": "U-3 official unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, household survey", "related_non_duplicates": ["November 2026 nonfarm-payroll-change markets use CES payrolls, not U-3 unemployment.", "Other months, U-6, labor-force participation, claims, ADP, JOLTS, state, metro, and demographic markets are not exact duplicates.", "Any-2026-month unemployment markets are not exact duplicates of the November reference-month threshold."], "release_schedule": "BLS schedules the November 2026 Employment Situation release for 2026-12-04 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Employment Situation release for November 2026", "source_fetch_caveat": "BLS schedule pages may return HTTP 403 to raw Python urllib from this host; recheck the official BLS schedule/source pages before live creation.", "threshold": "4.5 percent or higher"}.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
- Également disponible sur Kalshi — Unemployment rate in Nov 2026? · Exactly 4.2% 77%
Marchés ouverts
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 91 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 569,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 47,4 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 359,2 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 16,4 k €
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-1.0pt96%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-8.0pt86%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Volume total
- 314,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 9,5 k €
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 86% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? doit être résolu le 4 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for November 2026 reports an official U-3 unemployment rate of at least 4.5 percent, seasonally adjusted.
- Où Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Kalshi.