Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 86%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète2 juil. 26, 00:12 UTC4 déc. 26, 13:25 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
October Unemployment Rate
PolymarketChina unemployment rate in October
KalshiWill US unemployment rate rise more than North Carolina unemployment rate in September?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.7% in December 2026?
ForecastExUnemployment rate in Oct 2026?
KalshiBrazil unemployment rate in September
KalshiRègles
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for November 2026 reports an official U-3 unemployment rate of at least 4.5 percent, seasonally adjusted.
- Use the household-survey U-3 unemployment rate for November 2026 from the first BLS Employment Situation release.
- A value of 4.5% or higher resolves YES.
- A value of 4.4% or lower resolves NO.
- Do not use total nonfarm payroll employment, household employment level, labor-force participation, U-6, metro-area or state unemployment rates, demographic subseries, non-seasonally-adjusted values, forecast consensus, any-2026-month markets, or later revisions unless BLS corrects the initial November 2026 release before resolution.
- If the November 2026 Employment Situation release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release containing the November 2026 U-3 unemployment rate unless there is no such release by December 11, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": "The latest checked BLS Employment Situation context reported a May 2026 U-3 unemployment rate of 4.3 percent and a 4.3-4.5 percent range since July 2025.", "metric": "U-3 official unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, household survey", "related_non_duplicates": ["November 2026 nonfarm-payroll-change markets use CES payrolls, not U-3 unemployment.", "Other months, U-6, labor-force participation, claims, ADP, JOLTS, state, metro, and demographic markets are not exact duplicates.", "Any-2026-month unemployment markets are not exact duplicates of the November reference-month threshold."], "release_schedule": "BLS schedules the November 2026 Employment Situation release for 2026-12-04 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Employment Situation release for November 2026", "source_fetch_caveat": "BLS schedule pages may return HTTP 403 to raw Python urllib from this host; recheck the official BLS schedule/source pages before live creation.", "threshold": "4.5 percent or higher"}.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
- Également disponible sur Kalshi — Unemployment rate in Nov 2026? · Exactly 4.2% 89%