Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 67.2%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète7 déc. 25, 16:53 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Alice Weidel become next German chancellor before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWho replaces Merz as Chancellor if he gets replaced before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill any German State Prime Minister after a 2026 election be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsWill Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?
Manifold MarketsFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
PolymarketNext Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves based on the next Bundestag Chancellor election (expected 2029 or earlier).
- Resolves YES if some or all AfD MPs vote for the winning Chancellor candidate AND their votes are necessary for the candidate to win (absolute majority in rounds 1–2, or plurality in round 3).
- Resolves NO if the Chancellor is elected without AfD votes, or if AfD votes for the winner but they would have won without them.
- Note: If votes are secret, resolution will be based on publicly available information (e.g., announced coalition agreements, party statements).
- In ambiguous cases, resolves based on market creator's best judgment.